Allocator
Which bets to make. Every operating decision is an investment decision with a cost, a probability of success, and a payoff. The allocator prices the opportunity before committing the dollar.
Capital allocation, M&A due diligence, portfolio construction, ROI underwriting. The same math your CFO uses for factories applies to knowledge work - with one twist: these assets can appreciate.
Planned from this position (8 posts)
AI Quality Tiers: When 85% Accuracy Is Fine
Coming soonI deploy AI at scale and price error costs against business impact
The Dollarized Confusion Matrix
Coming soonI derived the threshold formula and use it to underwrite AI investments
What They Don't Tell You About Being a PE CTO
Coming soonI run a multi-brand portfolio and sequence investments against exit timelines
The Cost Optimization Playbook
Coming soonI execute cost programs and prioritize cuts by ROI
Why Your AI Pilot Failed (And How to Pick Better Targets)
Coming soonI built the scoring model and use it to decide which AI bets to make
Any Sufficiently Advanced Technology: A Taxonomy of Magic
Coming soonI backtested the protocol across 700 years and use it to predict winners
Perfectionism Is a Bad Bet
Coming soonI derived the yield function and use it to size bets on shipping velocity
The Eighth Ledger: When Intellectual Labor Becomes a Capital Asset
Coming soonI backtested the protocol and use it to predict where value migrates