Predicted Neg
Predicted Pos
Actual Neg
True Negative
+$0
False Positive
−$3
Actual Pos
False Negative
−$3k
True Positive
+$3
Start with a scenario
Optimal threshold
θ* = 0.0010
Asymmetry
1001:1
0 (flag everything)0.5 (default)1 (flag nothing)
Missing a positive costs 1001x more than a false alarm. Flag aggressively: anything above 0.1% confidence.
Open the full version at templeton.host/tools/dollarized-confusion-matrix