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Allocator

Which bets to make. Every operating decision is an investment decision with a cost, a probability of success, and a payoff. The allocator prices the opportunity before committing the dollar.

Capital allocation, M&A due diligence, portfolio construction, ROI underwriting. The same math your CFO uses for factories applies to knowledge work - with one twist: these assets can appreciate.

Writing from this position (8 posts)

AI Quality Tiers: When 85% Accuracy Is Fine

AI Quality Tiers: When 85% Accuracy Is Fine

I deploy AI at scale and price error costs against business impact

Allocator+Operator
The Dollarized Confusion Matrix

The Dollarized Confusion Matrix

I derived the threshold formula and use it to underwrite AI investments

Allocator+Scientist
What They Don't Tell You About Being a PE CTO

What They Don't Tell You About Being a PE CTO

I run a multi-brand portfolio and sequence investments against exit timelines

Allocator+Operator
The Cost Optimization Playbook

The Cost Optimization Playbook

I execute cost programs and prioritize cuts by ROI

Allocator+Operator
Why Your AI Pilot Failed (And How to Pick Better Targets)

Why Your AI Pilot Failed (And How to Pick Better Targets)

I built the scoring model and use it to decide which AI bets to make

Allocator+Scientist
Any Sufficiently Advanced Technology: A Taxonomy of Magic

Any Sufficiently Advanced Technology: A Taxonomy of Magic

I backtested the protocol across 700 years and use it to predict winners

Allocator+Scientist
Perfectionism Is a Bad Bet

Perfectionism Is a Bad Bet

I derived the yield function and use it to size bets on shipping velocity

Allocator+Scientist
The Eighth Ledger: When Intellectual Labor Becomes a Capital Asset

The Eighth Ledger: When Intellectual Labor Becomes a Capital Asset

I backtested the protocol and use it to predict where value migrates

Allocator+Scientist

Where Allocator intersects

Allocator+Operator=Portfolio Alpha

Pricing the bet AND running the playbook. Cost programs, exit sequencing, EBITDA optimization.

Allocator+Builder=Construction Spread

Pricing the opportunity AND building it yourself. The spread between what it costs you vs. what it costs the market.